Pine forests in northern Minnesota take decades to develop naturally, but climate change is causing rapid, unprecedented changes. Managers need science to support decisions about which species of trees to plant for the future and how to manage them to provide the goods and services people want from these forests. Research using computer simulation models can provide this guidance without waiting decades for the answers.

The Cutfoot Experimental Forest in Minnesota is home to one of the nation’s largest climate adaptation experiments—the Red Pine Adaptive Silviculture for Climate Change (ASCC) experiment established by Northern Research Station scientists in 2014. The Red Pine ASCC is evaluating adaptation approaches for iconic northern pine forests that range from doing nothing (passive), to thinning pines to fewer trees per acre to increase soil moisture availability (resistance), to combinations of harvesting and planting of native future-adapted tree species (resilience), or novel species (transition). The ability to say anything definitive about long-term outcomes of these treatments is limited by the newness of the project. This is where computer modeling comes in. Northern Research Station researchers have used the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS), a computer model used by most National Forests, to evaluate long-term responses to the ASCC treatments. The results point to the transition treatment showing the lowest end-of-century mortality, increasing tree productivity compared with the other treatments, and highest tree diversity. Specifically, eastern white pine, a future climate adapted species, became the dominant species (reflected in relative basal area), increasing to 15.32 percent of total stand basal area in 2116. Additional future adapted species became increasingly abundant, including northern red oak, bur oak, white oak, and black cherry. This work provides an important context for silviculture aimed at climate change by offering insight into potential long-term outcomes of near-term treatments.